Guminski R., Radkowski S.

The credibility of risk estimation, being part of technical risk analysis, depends on numerous factors, including the uncertainty of external conditions, the uncertainty of the model, which is related to the relevant level of knowledge of degradation and fatigue-related processes, parametrical uncertainty and the quantitative evaluation of the effect of propagation of uncertainty in the system. Evaluation of the consequences and gravity of loss while relying on uncertain results makes no sense and thus the model should account for the uncertainty of analysis, and also additional information should be introduced to reduce the uncertainty. Use of vibroacoustic diagnosis methods, which enables detection of both qualitative and quantitative changes of mechanical properties and kinematic-and-dynamic parameters of critical elements and kinematic nodes, can substantially reduce the uncertainty of technical risk analysis. It should be stressed that the studies dealing with modeling while accounting for uncertainty stress that there is a major deficit of available means for dealing with this sphere when compared to actual requirements. While tackling the problem of the impact of diagnostic inspection results on reduction of uncertainty of risk estimation, one should above all review the possibility of applying the probabilistic models when describing the degradation and fatigue processes while also accounting for the impact of the covariates.