Radkowski S., Zawisza M.

The goal of the paper is to develop a new prognostic strategy of system operation required for maintaining high level of readiness of complex power transmission systems, where the basis of such a strategy is an integrated prognostic procedure relying on the results of comparative research performed with the use of diagnostic models being in useful state and in the state of developing degradation of their critical elements. Thanks to applying various forms of random load for hybrid simulation models, which combine the dynamic diagnostic models with causal models where a defect is the effect, the method of problem-solving that we adopted enables us to detect the hidden defects of system elements and to forecast the remaining operating time at a relevant level of credibility. The solution proposed in this project can be used in the decision-making process in operating systems of machines and vehicles, where similarly as in cars, machines and helicopters it is the toothed gear that is the critical unit of their power transmission systems which can be designed according to the “damage tolerant” rule. The method of solving the problem described in the paper enables foreseeing the subsequent stages of defect development, thus enabling operational decisions to be made in a manner similar to the procedures applied for use of systems designed according to the “damage tolerant” principle.